Friday, 22 August 2014

Global Strategy Weekly in Charts: Stocks to return to recent highs, then what?

Macro: Better US Outlook, But Europe Worrying

1. Markit Manufacturing PMI Points to Stronger US Recovery

2. US Initial Jobless Claims Back to Cycle Lows
3. Why the Fed Can Stay on Hold Longer: High 12.2% Under-Employment Rate
4. German 10-year Bond Yield < 1% Higlights Deflation Risk: ECB to Help?

Stock Markets: Tech, Financials Hit New High, Europe Rebounds

5. US Technology, Financials Sectors Break Out to New Highs
6. German Stocks Lagged Word By Over 8%; Now Catch-Up Time

Commodities: Has Crude Oil Found A Bottom At Last?

7. Brent Crude Oil Finally Bouncing Off $102/barrel
8. Oil Services, Exploration/Production Start To Recover
9. Nearly the Season for the Energy Sector To Perform!

Risks: Watch For Mid-Term VIX to Return to <13

10. Mid-Term VIX Volatility Index Under 13 Will Flag Renewed Risk to Stocks
11. Warning: US Retail Sentiment Back to Bullish High (Contrarian Signal)

Investment Summary

  1. US Economic Recovery Seems to be Improving
  2. But High Under-Employment Means the Fed Can Wait…
  3. Risk-On Recovery Driving US Tech Financials To New Highs
  4. European Stocks Still Primed To Recover, But Hinges on the ECB
  5. Opportunity to Return to Oil Stocks As Brent Crude Bottoms
  6. Watch for the Mid-Term VIX to Dip Under 13; then risk/return may change

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