Bloomberg TV interview (Video): Why I like eurozone banks for Q4, even Deutsche Bank!

Bloomberg web link to Video below:

Bloomberg TV interview (Video): Why I like eurozone banks for Q4, even Deutsche Bank!

CNBC Guest Host: Talking about China (amongst other things)

CNBC Europe: Squawkbox programme - Video Link below:

Chinese market volatility worrying: Strategist

CNBC TV Interview: Bonds - Expect more extreme moves

Edmund Shing, global equity portfolio manager at BCS Financial Group, says bond volatility is on the up. 

Click on link below to watch the video clip:

Bonds: Expect More Extreme Moves

On Bloomberg TV: Discussing the Economy

BCS Asset Management’s Edmund Shing and Mizuho International’s Riccardo Barbieri discuss Greece’s ongoing talks with its creditors and an IMF payment that the country made. They speak to Bloomberg’s Jonathan Ferro on “On The Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Bloomberg TV link:

Greece Still Near Brink Despite IMF Payment: Shing

Bloomberg TV interview this morning - discussing China, Greece...

BCS Asset Management Global Equity Portfolio Manager Edmund Shing discusses 

• China’s Flash PMI data, 
• Greece’s debt deal and 
• where he sees opportunity. 

-
He speaks to Bloomberg’s Mark Barton, Caroline Hyde and Manus Cranny on “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Bloomberg TV Video Link Below:

23/04/15 Bloomberg TV Interview:
Edmund Shing on China, Greece, opportunities

CNBC Squawkbox Guest Host: Video on Chinese, Hong Kong Equities Value

Edmund Shing, global equity portfolio manager of BCS Financial Group, says he still sees value in the Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets.

Please click below to view the VIDEO Link:

CNBC TV: See value in Hong Kong, Chinese equities: Pro

CNBC TV: Greek reforms - The risks ahead

From my recent Guest Host spot on CNBC's Closing Bell with Louisa Bojesen:

Edmund Shing, global equity portfolio manager at BCS Financial Group, discusses Greece's reform plans and the potential risks ahead.

Video Link below:

CNBC TV: Greek Reforms - the risks ahead

Idris Elba gives Superdry the premium touch as Debenhams enjoys its sweet spot

International Business Times Video Link below:

IB Times Video: Idris-elba-gives-superdry-premium-touch-debenhams-enjoys-its-sweet-spot

We as a nation spent £26.5bn (€36bn, $39bn) in the shops during February, ie £6.6bn per week. The latest retail sales data reveals we bought 5.7% more stuff from shops in the second month of the year than in 2014, an impressive growth rate.

Clearly the combination of increasing employment, rising wages and lower petrol prices are driving greater consumer optimism and are all leading us to open up our wallets and spend with abandon...

A schizophrenic retail sector: Supermarkets pressured, non-food flies

Looking under the hood of retail sales statistics reveals two very different trends at work: firstly, supermarkets continue to have a tough time, with sales flat and prices under pressure (food prices on average 2% lower now than this time in 2014).

Secondly, in sharp contrast, the non-food retail sector is enjoying a boom (Figure 1), with a 5.3% increase in retail sales value over a year ago.

Figure 1. A tale of two sectors: Food retail flat, non-food booms

Source: Office for National Statistics

Digging deeper, the sectors producing the best growth at the moment are clothing, electrical appliances and household goods (furniture, lighting, Figure 2), all growing at over 6% per year.

Figure 2. Clothing, electrical and household goods in the lead

Source: Office for National Statistics. Data as of February 2015

In the UK retail space, the obvious names come to mind such as the veritable Marks & Spencer, Next and even Whitbread (the owner of Costa Coffee, Beefeater Grill and Brewers Fayre).

So which companies should be making hay? Debenhams and SuperGroup

But I would focus right now on two other retail names: department store chain Debenhams and the owners of the popular Superdry fashion brand, SuperGroup.

I like Debenhams (code: DEB) for a number of reasons:

1. It sits in the current sweet spot of retailing, offering clothing, footwear and household goods in its department stores.
2. Current trading is strong, following the strong key Christmas period with 4.9% like-for-like sales growth. Online was strong too with its debenhams.com website growing sales by 29% over the four-week period, helped by the success of its click-and-collect service.
3. Gross profit margins continue to improve, highlighting the better cost control and fewer discounted items sold.
4. Valuation remains cheap at only 10x P/E (thus far cheaper than Next, Marks & Spencer or Associated British Foods – owner of Primark; Figure 3), while income lovers will like the 4.6% dividend yield paid out. 

Figure 3. Debenhams, SuperGroup cheaper than other UK retailers

Source: Stockopedia.com. Note: SuperGroup P/E adjusted for net cash

The stock has been on a strong run of late, rising from under 60p in October 2014 to touch a peak at the end of February of over 80p, before settling back to 76p now. I think there could be plenty more upside left in Debenhams, given the following winds from the UK economy.

SuperGroup: Buying into the new strategy

SuperGroup (code SGP), the retailer behind Superdry, has decided to buy back the distribution rights for its fashion brand in the US, so as to sell Superdry clothing Stateside rather than through a partner. At the moment, Superdry is not making money in the US, but this strategic move highlights the new management's confidence in its US growth potential.

Secondly, it has recruited actor Idris Elba (The Wire, Luther, Prometheus, Pacific Rim, Thor) for a collaboration on a new premium range of Superdry clothing, which should deliver a boost to UK sales.

Thirdly, it is initiating a dividend for the first time, which will allow part of the £66m of cash on its balance sheet to be progressively returned to shareholders.

Top-line growth for Superdry is still estimated to beat 10% per year going forwards, generating 12-14% earnings growth. For this, an investor is paying just over 13x P/E on an ex-cash basis, which seems a remarkably good deal for this recovering branded goods growth story. So shop till you drop with Debenhams and SuperGroup.

Bloomberg TV Video: BG Group Shareholders Have Been Rescued by Shell

BCS Financial Group Global Equity Portfolio Manager Edmund Shing discusses both the outlook for European markets and Royal Dutch Shell’s acquisition of BG Group. He speaks with Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Video Link below:

Bloomberg TV: BG Shareholders Rescued by RD Shell

On Bloomberg TV - Interviews on Europe/Greece, Crude Oil Outlook

I would like to highlight a couple of videos from my interview this morning on Bloomberg TV, looking at a number of Strategy issues including Oil and Europe.

Please click on the web links below to watch the videos:

On Europe

Bloomberg TV Video: On Europe, Greece

On Oil

Bloomberg TV Video: On Oil (Edmund Shing)

Bloomberg, CNN TV Appearances to Discuss the Fed, Greece/Europe, and Oil

Just to let you know that I appeared both on Bloomberg and CNN TV this morning.

Please find below two links to comments I made regarding the US Federal Reserve, and Europe-Greece.

Bloomberg: US Fed-signaling-they-are-still-data-dependent-Shing

Bloomberg: Ultimately-a-deal-with-Greece-will-get-done-Shing

Best regards,
Edmund

CNBC Closing Bell: Guest Host Videos

Please find below links to 2 videos from my appearance on CNBC’s Closing Bell programme as Guest Host:

Poland: Land of Opportunity?

UK Budget: What to expect

Video: CNBC Worldwide Exchange Interview On Oil, Greece (amongst other things)

To watch my TV interviews on CNBC's Worldwide Exchange programme from Thursday 19 February, on the subject of Oil and Greece, please click on the links below:

CNBC WWE: Oil Has Hits Its Bottom

CNBC WWE: Capital Controls are a Last Resort

IB Times Video: Gold Glitters Once Again

"Gold is money. Everything else is credit." So said celebrated banker JP Morgan, founder of the eponymous US investment banks, back in 1912.

Did you know gold, when treated as a currency, was the second-best currency performer in the world last year after the US dollar (Figure 1)?

Figure 1. Gold Was the Second Best-Performing Currency Last Year 

Source: Hard Assets Investor, US Global Investors

For investors in the UK or the eurozone, gold has been a strong performer over the past 12 months, with the gold price in sterling rising 12% to the end of January, and up an even more impressive 23% in euro terms over the same period (Figure 2).

You might well ask yourself why gold has been such a strong performing asset of late, given that it does not offer an income yield like shares or bond. There are several reasons for gold's comeback after 2014's sharp slump in price, related to:

• Demand from central banks around the world
• Strong gold jewellery demand from emerging markets such as China and India
• Safe haven demand from investors looking to park their savings in a "hard currency" that will maintain its value over time, protecting against currency devaluation.
• Central banks have been buying gold by the ton

Figure 2: Sterling- or Euro-based Gold Price Has Been Strong
Over the Last Year 

Source: Bloomberg

Central banks around the world have proved a large source of demand for the yellow metal over the past 12 months, led by Russia. The Central Bank of Russia bought a record amount of gold in the first 11 months of 2014 spending an estimated $6.1bn (£4bn, €5.3bn) in an attempt to reduce dependence on the US dollar amid geopolitical tension, (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Central Bank of Russia Keeps Buying Gold 

Source: Casey Research

Aside from the Central Bank of Russia, other central banks have also been net buyers of gold, including the People's Bank of China and the Indian central bank (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Central Banks Have Been Net Buyers of Gold Since 2010 

Source: World Gold Council

The investment case for owning some gold exposure in your portfolio

The classic investment case for an investor to own gold is twofold. Firstly, it acts to diversify your overall investment portfolio, which is generally dominated by stocks and shares on the one hand, and various types of bonds (government and corporate) on the other.

Gold tends to appreciate over the long term but does not move together with either stocks or bonds over time, acting to smooth out the overall investment returns from your long-term savings.

Secondly, it acts to protect the value of your long-term savings against the effects of a weaker currency.

In this case, just look at how sterling has lost 12% against the US dollar from peak in June 2014 to today, while the euro has suffered an even more dramatic 19% drop against the US dollar since hitting a peak in March 2014.

Holding gold would have protected you against the bulk of these declines.

So how can you buy gold exposure?

Well, there are a couple of easy ways that you can by exposure to the yellow metal:

• You can buy gold in the form of coins or small gold bars from the Royal Mint (that produces all of our coins) – it is selling a gold sovereign (containing 0.2354 of a troy ounce) for just under £227, with discounts for buying 25 or more. The problem with this is you are effectively paying the Royal Mint a premium of up to 12% over the actual price of gold per ounce to buy these coins.

• You can invest in a gold bullion exchange-traded fund (ETF), which you can hold in a stocks and shares account or stocks and shares Isa. My preferred gold ETF is the ETF Securities Physical Gold ETF (code: PHGP), which buys you direct investment exposure to the gold price in sterling.

So go on, now is the time to look at getting your hands on some of that shiny yellow metal.

Video Clips from my appearance this morning as Guest Host on CNBC Europe Squawkbox

CNBC Europe TV:
Video Clips from my appearance this morning as Guest Host on CNBC Europe Squawkbox

Please click on the links below to view the short video clips:

Discussion with Nobel Prize Winner Prof. Robert Shiller

Discussion: Apple stock 'inexpensive'

2 Bloomberg TV Interviews on European Central Bank, Oil Price

Bloomberg TV Interview 1: Market Is Expecting a Lot From Mario Draghi: Shing

Bloomberg TV Video Link 1

Bloomberg TV Interview 2: Falling Oil Is an Underplayed Risk: Shing

Bloomberg TV Video Link 2

VIDEO CNBC Europe Closing Bell Guest Host: Greek Stocks Crushed

VIDEO CNBC Europe Closing Bell: Greek Stocks Crushed

Greece has brought forward its presidential election by two months, causing anxiety in the investment community. Edmund Shing, global equity portfolio manager at BCS Asset Management, weighs in on the discussion.

CNBC Europe Squawkox appearance: Why I Like Chinese Stocks

A second video clip from my Guest Host appearance on yesterday's CNBC Europe's Squawkbox programme:

CNBC: Why Take a Closer Look at Chinese A-Shares

CNBC Europe Guest Host: Video on the Juncker investment plan

I appeared on CNBC Europe's Squawkbox programme as Guest Host this morning, discussing a range of issues including the newly-announced grand Europe investment plan, laid out by European Commission President Juncker:

CNBC Europe Squawkbox: Discussing Juncker's Investment Plan

IBT UK: Forget 'Slowdown' Worries, China is a Compelling Investment Opportunity With 7% Growth

Please click on the link below to read my latest article for the International Business Times on the investment allure of China:

Forget-slowdown-worries-china-compelling-investment-opportunity

You can also watch my interview on China with IBT UK editor-in-chief George Pitcher here:

There are times in investing when going against the flow can be very profitable. I believe that investing in China today is one of those times.

Conventional wisdom holds that the Chinese growth "miracle" is over after a number of years growing at a double-digit rate, with the economy now slowing rapidly. Writing recently in the Guardian, renowned economist Kenneth Rogoff highlighted the risk of Chinese slowdown, pointing out a number of key challenges that could derail the Chinese government as they seek to rebalance the behemoth that is the Chinese economy.

But, as is often said in financial markets, there is a price for everything. Moreover, money is rarely made by investing in what is comfortable – government bonds being a case in point at the moment, relatively safe but offering only ultra-low yields. China looks a compelling investment opportunity at the moment, in spite of the widespread "slowdown" worries.

China is still growing at over 7% per year...

Whatever concerns economists may have over China, let us not forget this Asian giant is still growing at over 7% per year in real terms; compare that to the sub-3% growth of the UK, and the non-existent growth in the eurozone.

World Bank Advises China to Lower 2015 Growth Target to 7%
'The Chinese stock market is one of the cheapest stock markets in the world'(Reuters)
This sounds strong to me, even if no longer a double-digit growth rate. After all, the law of large numbers makes it increasingly difficult for China to continue to grow at such a fast rate, now it is officially the second-largest economy in the world after the US when adjusting for the cost of living (according to the World Bank), more than double the size of the third-placed country, India.

Chinese Stocks Are Very Cheap

The Chinese stock market is one of the cheapest stock markets in the world, when judging by a standard metric such as price/earnings (P/E). Chinese stocks on average trade at under 9x forecast P/E, while offering a dividend yield of well over 3%. Compare this to the US stock market which trades at over 15x P/E, or the FTSE 100 which trades at nearly 13x P/E. In addition, profit growth is forecast to remain in the double digits, more than can be said for the European and US stock markets next year.

Chinese stocks are starting to outperform

The MSCI China A-Shares exchange traded fund (ETF) listed in London has gained nearly 26% over 2014 to date, already an impressive return and far outstripping a US S&P 500 ETF (+13%), a Europe-ex-UK ETF (-6%) and a FTSE 100 ETF (-4%).

But since the beginning of 2009, Chinese shares have only gained 47% in total (including dividends) in sterling terms, versus +115% for the S&P 500 and +77% for the FTSE 100, suggesting that there could be a further catch-up effect to come (Figure 1).

So in my eyes, the three factors value, growth and price momentum all line up for Chinese stocks. How might you buy into this theme in your own portfolio? I can suggest a three easy alternatives, via exchange-traded funds and via investment trusts.

1. The CSOP Source FTSE China A50 UCITS ETF (code: CHNA). This London Stock Exchange-listed fund invests in China A-shares, which remain the best-value type of Chinese stock available and invests in large financial companies such as insurer Ping An, bank China Merchants Bank and oil company Petrochina.
   
2. The Fidelity China Special Situations Fund (code: FCSS). This is an investment trust that invests selectively in a range of large- and mid-cap Chinese stocks, and which currently trades at a near-13% discount to the fund's net asset value. That means that you can currently buy 100p of Chinese stocks for just over 87p, not a bad deal!
   
3. A third option is to invest indirectly in the China theme via a fund containing stocks listed in Hong Kong. This can be done with the Invesco Powershares FTSE RAFI Hong Kong China ETF (code: PSRH), which invests in the likes of property company Cheung Kong Holdings and airline company Swire Pacific (the parent company for Cathay Pacific).